The Mystery of the “Greenback Era” Interest Rates: What Does the New York Money Market Have to Tell?
نویسنده
چکیده
The behavior of interest rates is one of the most striking features of the Greenback Era(1862 1878) in the U.S. nancial history. Previous research attempted to solve the puzzle by suggesting that people failed to foresee dramatic price swings. An alternative story is that foreign capital ows produced a mitigating supply e¤ect. Unlike the existing literature on the issue, this paper directly asks whether the observed returns were consistent with rational behavior on part of the money market investors. I fail to nd persuasive evidence that the money market of that time systematically admitted arbitrage opportunities.
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تاریخ انتشار 2005